List of Ten Shattered Assumptions of Azerbaijan Foreign Policy
by Paul Goble
On-going series: Crisis in the Caucasus - 2008
The Russian / Georgian Conflict and Its Impact on Azerbaijan
Note: This article was written for the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy's biweekly, "Azerbaijan in the World." It appears in Vol. I, No. 14-15 (September 1, 2008).
For complete article in English
Shattered Assumption 1
Georgia is sufficiently stable to allow it to be the primary path for the export of Azerbaijani and Caspian Basin oil and gas bypassing Russia.
Shattered Assumption 2
Russia has accepted the 1991 settlement and will not use military force against its neighbors.
Shattered Assumption 3
The United States is sufficiently powerful to be a reliable and credible deterrent to any Russian misbehavior in the former Soviet space.
Shattered Assumption 4
The United States and the international community are so committed to the inviolability of borders that they will not permit any revision of them, especially by violence.
Shattered Assumption 5
Turkey can be counted on to back Azerbaijan against Russia.
Shattered Assumption 6
Iran, thanks to American-led efforts to isolate it and its own domestic problems, does not pose any fundamental threat to Azerbaijan.
Shattered Assumption 7
Azerbaijan's growing economy might well allow it to counter any challenge posed by Armenia over Karabakh.
Shattered Assumption 8
Azerbaijan as a source of oil for an energy-thirsty Europe guarantees that it can count on outside support against any challenge.
Shattered Assumption 9
Azerbaijan's so-called "balanced foreign policy" is sufficient to give Azerbaijan the security and freedom of action its leaders want.
Shattered Assumption 10
Azerbaijan's international environment is sufficiently benign that it now can, and should, focus exclusively on its domestic problems.