Conference The South Caucasus: Leadership Change and Foreign Influence The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute The Johns Hopkins University (SAIS) Date December 11, 2000 8:15 am-6:15 pm Where Kenney Auditorium JHU-SAIS 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC. The public is welcome to attend. For further information, please call (202) 663-5642. Over the last six years the United States has become deeply engaged in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. But a new school of thinking in the last year or so has questioned whether our commitments to the Caspian Basin were clearly planned or wise. The administration that will take office on January 20 will, regardless of party, inevitably reassess our policy in this region. At the same time, Georgia and Azerbaijan are entering periods of political transition, with possible consequent instability, not seen since the early nineties. The current Presidents may serve for many more years. President Aliev, however, has clearly begun to make preparations for passing on his role to a successor. In both countries, the various parties, groups and individuals that would like to follow the current Presidents have begun maneuvering. In Armenia, a state that was once strong and supported by public opinion has, after the fall of the first President and the murder of the Prime Minister and Parliamentary Chairman, become contested and weakened. Armenian public opinion has at times become remarkably pessimistic. These circumstances could offer neighboring powers, like Russia, Turkey and Iran, new opportunities to enter South Caucasian politics. The position America has gained could be threatened. In any case, the United States will need to respond to very changed conditions. Our conference has been designed to address only the issues that are not now well understood. "The South Caucasus: Leadership Change and Foreign Influence" 7:45 a.m. Breakfast Herter Room Nitze Building SAIS 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW 8:15 a.m. Welcoming Remarks S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute USG Official TBA. Kenney Auditorium Nitze Building (other sessions here unless otherwise noted) 8:30-9:00 a.m. Introduction "The Problem of Succession in Post-Communist Regimes "The Approaching Successions: A Framework for Analysis" Charles Fairbanks, Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute 9:00-9:15 a.m. Coffee Break 9:15-11:15 a.m. Panel I "Georgian Politics after Shevardnadze" Ghia Nodia, Chairman, Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi, Georgia. Comments: William Courtney, former Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and Ambassador to Georgia (invited) - Korneli Kakachia, UNOMIG, Zugdidi, Georgia "The Shevardnadze Succession: the Role of the Power Ministries and Russia" David Darchiashvili, Head, Parliamentary Research Service, Tbilisi Comments: Paul Joyal, Intercon Inc.(invited) - Colonel Archil Tsintadze, Military Attache, Embassy of Georgia - USG Analyst TBA 11:30-11:45 a.m. Break 12:00-1:15 p.m. Free for lunch. A list of neighborhood restaurants with reserved tables will be distributed. 1:30-3:30 p.m. Panel II "Azerbaijani Political Groups" Leila Aliyeva, Baku. Comments: Elshan Alakbarov, LPI Consulting, Inc. Tadeusz Swietochowski, Monmouth College (invited). "The Power Ministries, Russian, Turkish and Iranian Influence after Heydar Aliev" Salhuddin Akbar, Secretary, Mussavat Party, Former First Deputy Minister of State Security, 1992-93. Comments: Richard Kauzlarich, Former Ambassador to Azerbaijan. USG Analyst TBA 3:30-3:45 p.m. Coffee Break 3:45-5:45 p.m. Panel III "Obstacles to Settling the Nagorno-Karabakh War" Gerard Libaridian, FormerArmenian Nagorno-Karabakh Negotiator Tofiq Zulfiqarov, Former Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan (invited) Comments: Jeyhun Mollah-Zade, US Azerbaijan Council USG Analyst TBA "Russian and Iranian Ability to Influence Armenia: What is the Trend?" Gerard Libaridian, Former Presidential Advisor and First Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Aleksandr Iskendaryan, Institute of the Caucasus, Moscow (invited) Comments: USG Speaker TBA Shireen Hunter, CSIS 5:45-6:00 p.m. Closing Remarks Paul Wolfowitz, Dean, SAIS 6:00-6:45 p.m. Reception Cash Bar, Herter Room Note: There may be minor changes in the times and speakers. _____ Listed with AZER.com: 12/05/2000 AI Home | Magazine Choice | Topics | Store | Contact us From Azerbaijan International © Azerbaijan International 2000. All rights reserved.