During Key West Talks
For the Resolution of the Karabakh Conflict

Azeri Expert Suggest President to Start War to Liberate Occupied Lands

BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Jun 6, 2001
Armenia's notion of exchanging "land for peace" and its preference for results of war over international norms together with the silence of international organizations leave us no other choice.

The Minsk summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS] on Caucasus is over.

[Passage omitted: background of the OSCE Minsk Group and Russia's role in the conflict]

It is hard to predict the development of events. Parallels have been drawn between the Caucasus and the Balkans and new geopolitical spheres are emerging. Political processes are being intensified which require clear stances. Azerbaijan, in order to win, should adopt a stance and reinforce its position in the new political processes. However, Azerbaijan's stance for the resolution of the Karabakh problem by peaceful means is not so obvious. Our territory is under occupation, Armenians do not want to abandon it and are engaged in various speculations. In contrast, Azerbaijan neither adopts the Armenia-initiated "land for peace" option nor undertakes serious steps. Serious steps are important:

1. The authorities must reinforce their influence;

2. Armenia and its president, Kocharyan, are in the opinion that Heydar Aliyev's health has deteriorated and they count on it;

3. Azerbaijan should naturally act if it comes to war.

We wonder, which one of these steps can be deemed the most serious one? Naturally, one cannot talk about the surrender of Karabakh to Armenia or its existence as an independent entity. Given this, It would be better if we talk about a long term conflict in the region after a brief truce. If Armenians exchange land for peace then they can do the same in the future.

Nagorno-Karabakh should be an integral part of Azerbaijan. At least, the 70-year Soviet history is a proof that Armenians are able to live under Azerbaijan's administration. Azerbaijan should use all its resources to bring Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijan's control. One of the available means is by war.

Armenians' acts of sabotage to disrupt stability and its notion of exchanging "land for peace" and its preference for results of war over international norms together with the silence and passivity of international organizations, leave us no other choice.

[Passage omitted: Armenia's national liberation movement should be compared with activities of the Kosovo Albanians]

Azerbaijan should issue a war ultimatum to Armenia and put forward concrete demands with a time limit (of 7-15 days). The international community should be briefed immediately.

[Passage omitted: how the constitution regulates war issue]

The Armenians' attitude towards Aliyev is of great importance. Most Armenians are nostalgic for the Soviet period. Heydar Aliyev, whether we like it or not, is one of 14-15 leaders of that period.

Therefore, Aliyev is not an "ordinary person" for Armenians and he is one of the first Azerbaijanis against whom Armenians fought. From this point of view, the Armenians can be divided into three groups according to their attitudes towards Heydar Aliyev:

1. Those who show indifference;

2. Those who accept him as a well-known person;

3. Those who dislike him.

The war led by Heydar Aliyev against Armenia has been more effective and more powerful than any other war. He has a great influence on the Armenian public opinion. The Armenian public opinion is not ready to wage a war against Heydar Aliyev's Azerbaijan. Heydar Aliyev's role should be evaluated properly. At 23-24 February session of the Milli Maclis, Heydar Aliyev hardly talked about war and brought realities to the session. Heydar Aliyev would like to see the opposition as the instigator of a war against Armenians. Having said that, the opposition is in no position to initiate a war.

The authorities say that the nation wants a quick resolution to the conflict and that the people would live in prosperity after the problem is resolved. Speaking at a ceremony [to mark the independence day] on 26 May at the Republican Palace, the most important points in Heydar Aliyev's speech were about the establishing of a powerful army for a fair war. Heydar Aliyev's speech was also approved by the US ambassador to Azerbaijan. Incidentally, the US cochairman in the OSCE Minsk Group, Carey Cavanaugh, compares the resolution of the Karabakh conflict with the Palestinian problem which means "major war begins when peace negotiations come to a dead end". Perhaps the USA has modified its stance or may it is in a hurry [to contribute to the resolution of the Karabakah problem].

[Passage omitted: Azeri losses in war, Russia's war in Chechnya, possibility of Russia's actions against Heydar Aliyev]

Should a war be declared on Armenia, Heydar Aliyev will be the second Azerbaijani to lead his nation to war after Shah Ismayil Xatai [16th century].

History proves that weak personalities are not able to declare war.

[Passage omitted: victorious war will change people's psychology]

Source: 525 qazet, Baku, in Azeri 3 Jun 01 p5
/BBC Monitoring/ © BBC.
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